Benchmark yamafuta olemera aku Alberta, Western Canadian Select (WCS), idatha sabata yochepera US $ 50 mbiya kwanthawi yoyamba kuyambira kumapeto kwa chaka chatha.Kutsika kwatsopano kwa 2022 kumanenedwa kuti kumachepetsa mitengo yamafuta ambiri, koma makamaka chifukwa chakukula kwa kusiyana kwamafuta olemera aku Canada.
OPEC + RALLY FIZZLES
Mitengo yamafuta yakhala ikutsika pang'onopang'ono mu theka lachiwiri la 2022. Mitengo idakwera pang'ono kumayambiriro kwa Okutobala, pambuyo poti OPEC + idasankha kuchepetsa magawo opanga ndi 2 miliyoni bbl/tsiku.Kuchepetsa kwenikweni kunali pafupi ndi 1 miliyoni bbl/tsiku chifukwa cha kusokonekera kosalekeza pakati pa mamembala akuluakulu a OPEC.
Zizindikiro za kuchepa kwachuma padziko lonse lapansi zafafaniza zambiri mwazopindulazo.WTI inatha sabata pa US $ 76 mbiya, kutsika kuchokera ku US $ 120 mu June.OPEC tsopano akuti ikuwona msika wochulukirachulukira mgawo lachinayi, ndipo sizokayikitsa kukweza ma quotas pamsonkhano wawo womwe ukubwera wa Disembala 4.
Mtengo WCS
Ngakhale ma benchmarks onse opanda pake adatsika kuyambira kumayambiriro kwa Novembala, WCS yavutika kwambiri kuposa ambiri, chifukwa chakuchulukira kwa kuchotsera kwake ku WTI.
Mitengo yamafuta ndi zosiyana zimakhala zosavomerezeka kwambiri m'nyengo yozizira, pamene kufunikira kwa mafuta kumakhala kofooka kwambiri.Komabe, kuchotsera kwa chaka chino ndikokulirakulira kwambiri kuyambira pakuchepetsa kwa 2019, mwina chifukwa chakubwereranso kwapaipi yotumiza kunja.
Maukonde a mapaipi aku Western Canada adatha chaka cha 2021 ndi malo osungira, chifukwa chomaliza Enbridge's Line 3 Replacement Project mu Okutobala 2021. TC Energy yamaliza kukulitsa 50,000 bbl/tsiku kwa payipi yake ya Keystone yomwe yawonjezera malo owonjezera.Kutumiza kunja, kupatula zinthu zoyengedwa bwino, kukuyembekezeka kufika pafupifupi 4.0 miliyoni bbl/tsiku.
Ngakhale zoyendera njanji zasiya kukongola, zimatengerabe pafupifupi 125,000 bb/tsiku zotumizira kunja, zomwe zidasintha pang'ono kuchokera pa avareji ya chaka chatha.
CHONCHO CHASINTHA CHIYANI?
Chaka chino chakhala chotanganidwa kwambiri ndi osamalira mchenga wamafuta mwanzeru, mwa zina chifukwa cha kuyimitsidwa kwanthawi ya mliri.Kwazaka zambiri za 2022, Enbridge's Mainline, yomwe imanyamula pafupifupi magawo awiri mwa atatu a zogulitsa kunja kwa Canada, inali ikugwira ntchito mochepera chifukwa cha kuchepa kwa zinthu.
Koma izi zasintha, ndipo kupanga kwakwera kwambiri m'gawo lachinayi.Kupanga phula makamaka, komwe kumatumizidwa ku US, kukuyembekezeka kutuluka mu 2022 ndi mbiri yatsopano.Dilbit ikuyembekezeka kukwera mpaka 300,000 bbl/tsiku mu Disembala kuyerekeza ndi nthawi yomweyi chaka chatha, pomwe kuchotsera kwa WCS kunali US$15 mbiya yokha.
Enbridge tsopano akuti Mainline idzagawidwa mu Disembala, zomwe zikutanthauza kuti opanga ena adzafunika kuyang'ana njira zina.Mainline ili ndi mphamvu yotumiza kunja kwa 3.1 miliyoni bbl / tsiku, pafupifupi 2.3 miliyoni bbl/tsiku yomwe imasungidwa kwa otumiza mafuta olemera.
Kuwonongeka kocheperako kukukonzekera chaka chamawa, zomwe zikutanthauza kuti 2023 ikhala chaka chinanso cholembera mchenga wamafuta.Ntchito Yokulitsa Mapiri a Trans Mountain sidzayamba kugwira ntchito mpaka kotala lachinayi, lomwe lingatumize migolo yambiri m'matanki osungira, kapena pamasitima apamtunda.
Kupatula kusokoneza kwakukulu kulikonse mumchenga wamafuta, kapena kubweza kwa ma quotas, misewu yonse imaloza kuchotsera kwakukulu mu 2023.